Apo Russia richavakunda dambudziko? nyanzvi pfungwa

The Russian upfumi dambudziko kurongedza kuitika kwemakore akawanda. Ndezvomuzvarirwo kuti vagari vakawanda munyika nehanya mubvunzo kana Russia richavakunda dambudziko, uye pazvinoitika. Pashure pezvose, munhu zvakanaka kunobva mhinduro pazviri. Ngatimbotaurei zvazviri, kana Russia achaita kukunda dambudziko. Nyanzvi mafungiro kuchatibatsira ichi.

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Usati akatendeuka panokurukurwa apo Russia richavakunda dambudziko, ngatiwanei chaizvo kuti yakatanga uye yakatanga munyika. Izvi zvichatibatsira kuziva nzira vabvemo.

Mushure yose mari dambudziko ra2008 , upfumi Russian kumavambo ra2010 wacho, akatanga zvishoma apore. Asi kare muna 2013 imomo kwave vamwe zvisina kuitika, chinokosha kupfuura yaiva zvimwe water drainage kuti guta kubva munyika. Zvisinei, kutambudzwa Fani iyi, kunyange yezvakaita dambudziko vaiva pachavo yekudyidzana kunetesa upfumi weRussia vakasagona. Saka, maonerwo rwa2014 inoramba zvakanaka yose.

Zvikuru mwoyo chaizvo nyika mari yakanga zvirango zvoupfumi zvavakatemerwa muna 2014, kuMadokero, uye kunyanya slump mu mitengo mafuta kuti kwakaitika panguva imwe chete. Nyanzvi Economic zvakasiyana kufungidzira ndeyokuti matambudziko aya mananara pamusoro kusembura ari dambudziko, asi vakawanda vavo vanobvuma kuti zviri zvikuru chinokosha.

Economic zvirango nyika dzokuMadokero vakashanda sechipinganidzo kuti Implementation vanoverengeka pamwe zvirongwa, rinongotaura chairehwa michina inodiwa kuti pave Russian maindasitiri, uye mukana nemari kwose zvezvipfuwo mabhizimisi uye mabhanga, uyewo kwazvo uwandu guru water drainage. Achipindura, hurumende yeRussia zvave vakasuma antisanktsii, avo vaivawo wandei zvakaipa nokuda Russian upfumi hwenyika. Kunyanya, tinofanira kutsvaka bhizimisi itsva zvokurima zvigadzirwa. Zvisinei, vanamazvikokota vakawanda vanobvuma kuti kwenguva Zvinoitwa hurumende yeRussia pamberi nezvepurogiramu inoshanda inogona kukonzera kukura zvokurima munyika.

A zvikuru nezvainoita Russian zvoupfumi ane jeko kuderera mitengo nderendarama dema. Kusvikira pakati 2014 mutengo mafuta zvishoma nezvishoma vakapfuura pachiyero $ 100 paminiti mudhiramu pakazopera gore rakanga kwakadonha kusvika $ 55 chete dhiramu. Muna 2015, kuwa mberi, uye mangwanani 2016 mutengo asvika kushoma, anodonha pazasi $ 30 mudhiramu.

Kuderedza mutengo mafuta kwete chete kumufambira kuzadza bhajeti, asi zvakonzerawo kuwa Ruble hama kuti nyika mari. Kuzorwa dhora kubva pakutanga 2014 kusvika pakutanga 2016 Ruble yave depreciated neinopfuura 2.5 nguva. Zvisinei, gare gare, nokuda kuwedzera mitengo mafuta, kuRussia mari akakwanisa kukunda shure nezvenzvimbo zvishoma.

Kuwa Ruble chagumbura kuwedzera mitengo, kuwedzera mari kupinza zvinhu, uyewo kuderera chaiyo mari. Uyewo, zvoupfumi anogona kuderedza Vhoriyamu GDP uye maronda vazhinji dzinoverengeka muzvirongwa.

Hapana chinoshamisa kuti, tichitarisa yevanhu yava chaizvo nehanya mubvunzo: "Apo Russia wanyatsonzwisisa kubva dambudziko?"

hurumende Zvaifungidzirwa

Chokutanga, ngationei, apo Russia richavakunda dambudziko, maererano vehurumende.

Pakati 2015, gurukota rezvemari Anton Siluanov akapa for ayo panyaya. Akati kuti Russia wanyatsonzwisisa kubva dambudziko pakutanga kwezana 2015-2016 wacho. Sezvaunogona kuona, asi chaiyo urefu nguva yapfuura, asi mamiriro ezvinhu emari inoramba nekaupenyu rinorema. Panguva iyoyo zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti, nokuda kuwedzera mitengo mafuta rokutanga chikamu 2016, asi pane zvave zvimwe zvakanaka zviri kuitika.

A zvakawanda kungwaririra for kuti Russia richavakunda dambudziko, akapa Gurukota Economic Development Aleksey Ulyukaev. Maererano naye, kukura kwoupfumi zvichaitika chete muna 2017, nokuti kudzikira achaguma pakazopera 2016. Zvisinei, kana tichienzanisa nenzvimbo vamwe vaongorori, Ulyukayev for iwayo tariro.

Musoro Central Bank of Russia uye anozivikanwa mudzimba financier Elvira Nabiullina, yakavakirwa vaongorori 'mhedziso sangano inotungamirirwa naye, akati dambudziko achapiwa pamwe Russian upfumi kusvikira pakupera 2016. The kukura rate inogona kutarisirwa chete muna 2018, uye kuti ayo dzekare pamwero, vachasunungurwa muna 2019. Izvi Nabiullina anoratidza nemashoko yakasimbiswa rweruzhinji mafuta. Asi kuchinja mutengo ndarama dema anogona yekudyidzana chinja musimboti bhengi ramangwana racho pakuzadzisa reNational upfumi.

Stepan Demura: zvakawanda kuipa

Vakasiyana maonero nzvimbo Russian hurumende iri pamusoro mubvunzo "kana Russia anogona kubuda kubva dambudziko" ane rinozivikanwa dzezvematongerwo Stepan Demura. Panguva iyoyo, akanga afanotaura yose mari dambudziko ra2008, apo vakawanda vamwe nyanzvi havana kutomboziva nezvaanogona ayo.

Stepan Demura anoti dambudziko zvichaita chete kukura zvakaipa muna 2016. Anofungidzira kuti mid-gore mutengo dhora nyore ayambukire chiratidzo 125 rubles uye pamusoro. Chikuru chikonzero dambudziko iri ano Russian zvoupfumi Stepan Demura inoti chinokosha nedoro kuti paumbwe hurumende bhajeti kubva kutengeswa simba chechetere. Maererano naye, Russia havazokwanisi kubuda dambudziko saka kure, harisati kukurira kutsamira, uye pfupi, kunodokuva kusingabviri.

Asi zvinokosha kufunga kuti Stepan Demura yagara inozivikanwa zvikuru tariro Zvaifungidzirwa pamusoro mamiriro ezvinhu Russian upfumi. Sezvineiwo, chikamu chikuru vavo havasi kuuya zvechokwadi.

Slava Rabinovich: kwo "nejichidza dema"

Ndinobvumirana Stepanom Demuroy pamusoro, kana Russia richavakunda dambudziko, Slava Rabinovich, uyo ane mukurumbira financier uye nyanzvi mune zveupfumi. Zviri kunyange pfungwa kuti Russia iri kumirira mberi chete kuwedzera dambudziko. Rabinovich akati achiri mubvunzo guru kana Russia richavakunda matambudziko munyika, mune zvematongerwo enyika nemashoko, ndiko nhasi.

Slava Rabinovich anoti Russia anotarisira kusvika "Black Swan", zvadaro dambudziko kutora guru zvechokwadi pamwero. Iri izwi rinoreva chiitiko asina kunokosha zvikuru kuti anogona kutanga chiketani zvinoita munhu Domino maturo, achiparadza yose maumbirwo management.

Somuenzaniso, kana mumwe kusauka rimwe Russian systemically inokosha mabhanga zvinogona akatanga muitiro yacho kusauka ane nhamba inokosha zvoupfumi mabhizimisi munyika kuti kutungamirira chinokosha nokusimbaradza dambudziko.

Nzira kunze dambudziko nokuda Russian Slava Rabinovich Panguva iyi haaoni. Asi tinofanira kuona kuti zviri zvinopesana chaiyo kuti hurumende ano, saka mashoko ake vanogona kupa kuchikosha inorwara subjectivity.

Kudrin: chine matanho kukurira dambudziko

maonero ake pamusoro mubvunzo, kana Russia richavakunda dambudziko, ndiyo yaimbova gurukota rezvemari kweRussia, uye zvino chiremera nyanzvi Alexei Kudrin. In ake achangobva mashoko, iye anoti dambudziko kwakanyanyisa muna 2015. Zvisinei, anotiwo kuti haufaniri dzikama nokuti dambudziko achapiwa akanzwa kwenguva refu asi.

Musi chaiwo chokupedzisira mbudo kubva dambudziko Kudrin anodana. Asi iye anoti zvichava zvikuru zvinetse kana kuti zvisabvira pasina mhinduro zvinetso chaizvo. Kudrin ane pfungwa sei kubuda ari zvoupfumi kuRussia. Chokutanga, danho kune pakudzikamisa upfumi Alexei Leonidovich akati kuvandudzika pamusoro paruzhinji kutarisira panguva iyoyo ndiyo isashande.

Zvinonzi zvakare chikamu chinokosha kunonzi pakusika kuvimbana ukama pakati hurumende, nharaunda uye mabhizimisi. Rimwe danho kurutivi Kudzikamiswa kwezvirongwa mari - kukwidza mudyandigere zera. Sezvineiwo, panyaya iyi, ndinobvumirana Kudrin uye kuita rezvemari Anton Siluanov.

Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti Mitsara Alexei Kudrin Russian upfumi ramangwana haana kudaro kare, ivo vava vasina tariro kupfuura chipo.

The maonero mamwe mudzimba vanoongorora

Asingatendi kugoverana netariro nemaonero nehurumende yeRussia kukurira dambudziko mumakore anouya, Igor Nikolaev, ndiye mutungamiriri Institute for Strategic Development. Zvisinei, mamiriro ezvinhu ake ezvinhu huchiri kwete tariro sezvo Stepan Demura uye Slava Rabinovich. Igor Nikolayev anotenda kuti nzira kunze dambudziko unogona kuuya chete ane kwemimwe zvinhu. Kwavari rinosanganisira kuwedzera mitengo mafuta, Nokusimudzwa pakati zvirango kuWest kuna Russia uye pakarepo kuchinja mune zvoupfumi utungamiriri mamiriro. Kuri kuti anenge mumwe izvi zvikasashanda, kutaura kukurira dambudziko iri zvakare mangwanani. Nguva chaiyo apo vose vatatu ezvinhu zvakasangana, hazvibviri kuti zita, sezvo hakubvi chete mudzimba asiwo nechitarisiko kwendangariro.

Vanoongorora Kr kuti Hse vakava nezvezviitiko zviviri zvichibvira zviitiko zveramangwana. Mumwe wavo, mari mafuta achava pedyo $ 35 chete dhiramu. The Muchiitiko chechipiri achipfeka kuwedzera mutengo goridhe mutema madhora 45. Asi chokutanga uye kana yechipiri, kusvikira 2020, zvichaita zvisingabviri kutaura pamusoro preconditions zvoupfumi kukura. Just pa $ 35 chete mudende, kurasikirwa zvemari reRussia achava dzakakwirira zvikuru kupfuura vachikanganisa $ 45.

Zvinofungidzirwa nyanzvi vatorwa

Chokwadi, mudzimai nyanzvi pfungwa uye muhurumende panyaya sei Russia chinoenda kubuda kubva dambudziko, zvikuru dzinonakidza, asi kuti zvimwe chinangwa tinyatsonzwisisa mamiriro vanofanira kutarira chikamu dambudziko. Ngationei nzvimbo nemasangano enyika tiite zvemari uye nyanzvi pamusoro mari yepamusoro Russian Federation wacho.

IMF anofanotaura tirambe kuderera yeRussian upfumi muna 2016-2017. Kunyange munguva ichangopfuura aanenge kuti dzakawanda mari zvikoro zvakanga zvikuru netariro. Vaiti dambudziko achapiwa kukundwa pakazopera 2016. Uye muna 2017, upfumi Russian vanofanira kuratidza kukura 1%.

Vanotsvakurudza panguva Chinese nhau sangano "Xinhua" nekusiyana, tendai kuti Russian Federation pasina zvinetso vachakwanisa kukunda dambudziko. Uyezve, hazvina zvakakodzera kubvunza munhu: "! Batsira Russia kubva dambudziko" Iye zvikuru aikwanisa kuita pacharo. Huru prerequisites kuti ichi, vaongorori vanodavira China waunoda guru munyika, uyewo kubatana kwevanhu. Zvisinei, unyanzvi musi nyanzvi hadzina kunzi.

Nyanzvi Analytical portal kuGermany, zvakare, tenda kuti Russia anokwanisa kuronga kuti nezvinetso zvemari. Izvi zvinoitika kana mitengo mafuta kukwira zvakare, izvo, maererano vokuGermany, chinhu chisingadzivisiki chakajairika, izvo zvinofanira kutarisirwa panongovira weOPEC nyika vachauya chibvumirano. Russia havazodyari chete upfumi kugadzikana asiwo nokusimbaradza nzvimbo.

zvakafanotaurwa venyeredzi

Zvechokwadi, muna mubvunzo, apo Russia richavakunda dambudziko, kufembera kwevazivi venyeredzi kuti ruzhinji vomunyika yedu kwete kupedzeredza, asi naivowo zvinofanira vati zvishoma kukurukura nyaya iyi.

Mukadzi inozivikanwa nyeredzi Pavel Globa Tamara ndiye nyanzvi mune nezvakafanotaurwa, inoti kuti dambudziko kuchapfuurira muna 2016. Uye hwaibatanidza kwete chete Russia asi yose. Asi maererano Tamara Globa, chete munyika yose dambudziko, kuparadza nyika yekare kuti hurongwa iri mukana zvikuru Russia kuti mberi pamberi kuti, maererano nyeredzi, uye zvichaitika munguva yemberi iri pedyo.

Chimwe anozivikanwa kuzoita - Fatima Hodueva, ndicho finalist chezvinhu "Battle of vafemberi." Maererano naye, zvikuru yakaoma nokuti Russian zvoupfumi - muna 2015 - akapfuura. Uyezve, zvinhu zvichange kugadziridzwa uye muchidzikamiswa. A chinokosha kuvandudzika kuchaitika muchirimo 2016.

The akakurumbira Bulgarian Muprofitakadzi Vanga kwavo nezvakafanotaurwa vanoti 2016 zvichava zvakaoma kuti Russia. Uyezve, nyika yose ichava kufukidza dambudziko. Asi pakazopera gore mamiriro ezvinhu munyika uye nyika yakatsiga zvikuru.

Sezvaunogona kuona, mubvunzo apo Russia richavakunda dambudziko, vafemberi chaizvo tariro mhinduro. Ngatikurukurei tariro kuti avo kufembera kuitike.

Zviito kuti vazoita dambudziko

Vanamazvikokota vakawanda vari kuti vanodavira kuti kune pamwero mukuru kuitika dambudziko akaparirwa nomusiyano ichidonhedzera mitengo mafuta pamusoro misika nyika. hurumende yeRussia inogona chete sananga kuchinja chinhu ichi, uye hazvingaiti mumaoko ake ane zvishandiso zvechokwadi anogona Jack kukwira mutengo goridhe dema.

Panguva iyoyowo, nyanzvi dzinofunga kuti zvinokwanisika kukurira matambudziko kana hurumende kutora kuwanda kwenhambwe kuvandudza basa hwenyika, achaita kuti Russia kukwezva kuti upfumi, uyewo waanodzikisira mafuta nedoro kuti munyika bhajeti.

Kutya uye zvavanotarisira

Nyanzvi dzakawanda dziri vachifanotaura munhu kwenguva refu zvoupfumi muRussia uye kujeka tarisiro vachibuda mairi. Panguva iyoyowo vamiririri vehurumende, kureva, Anton Siluanov, Aleksey Ulyukaev uye Elvira Nabiullina, projected Kudzikamiswa zvinhu zvemari muna 2017-2018 gore. Navo kubatana, kunyange vamwe vaongorori vatorwa, zvikurukuru, Chinese uye German. Zvokuti prerequisites chekutarisira pakati zvavo vokuRussia achiripo. Uyezve, dzimwe nyanzvi kuona kuitika munyika dzinoverengeka mikana inokosha nokusimbaradza National upfumi, uye goho kuti aitungamirira chinzvimbo munyika. Pashure nguva dambudziko asi pachena zvinhu zvisingafadzi, uye inopa mamwe nemamwe features, idzo apo neapo.

Kukurudzira uye zvakafanotaurwa vafemberi, asi vanofanira kubatwa nokunyatsongwarira, sezvo vazivi venyeredzi vanovakira dzavo paMharidzo zvichiri kwete panguva esayenzi tsananguro yacho zvakavapo.

Kazhinji, vagari Russia bedzi kwenguva pfupi nokukurumidza mbudo kubva dambudziko munyika. Asi unofanira kugadzirira-refu zveupfumi uye emari. Muchiitiko chino, kunyange kana dambudziko runokukura mberi, tichakwanisa kusangana musoro-mberi. Sezvo vachiti, tariro zvakanaka asi kugadzirira zvikuru.