Ndarama uye mari yemari yekuchengetwa kweUkraine: matanho uye sarudzo

Nzvimbo dzegoridhe nemari dzenyika imwe neimwe dzinosanganisira goridhe nemari. Zvimwe zvinhu zvinowanzobatanidzwa. Munyika dzakabudirira, chirongwa chePWR chinogona kusanganisira maBritish pound uye Swiss franc, yen uye nedzimwe mari yakawanda yenyika. Bumbiro reCentral Bank rinosarudza kuumbwa kwezvakachengetedzwa. Panguva imwecheteyo, kunyanya kugadzikana kwehupfumi hwehurumende, hukuru hwehuwandu hwegoridhe mune zvigadzirwa zvegoridhe. Kana kushandiswa kwemari yehurumende yenyika isinganyatsogadzikane, ipapo pachava nekuchengetwa kwakanyanya kwemari yakasimbiswa kunze kwenyika munzvimbo yakachengetedzwa.

Urongwa hweRG nenyika

Chimiro chezvivigiro zvegoridhe chinowirirana zvinoshamisa, zvichienderana nehurumende. Nhoroondo yezvino yepamutemo yeJanuary 1, 2014 inoratidza hukuru hunotevera hwegoridhe muzvinhu:

• America - 70%.
• Germany - 66%.
• France - 64.9%.
• Nyika dzeEU - chiyero che 55.2%.
• Russia - 7.8%.
• Ukraine - 8%.

Pano tinocherechedza kuti mumakore matatu apfuura, kuderera kwekukosha kwesimbi yakakosha kwakanyorwa. Ndokusaka chokwadi chekukosha kwegoridhe sechinhu chakakosha chiri kubvunzwa nevakawanda. Kana nyika iri kukura, zvinonzwisisika kuzadza nzvimbo yacho nemari huru yenyika, sezvo muzinga wavo unokura zvakakurumidza. Yakagadziriswa mabhizinesi ayo anotora nyika currencies inoshandisa simbi inokosha apo kugadzira zvigadzirwa zvegoridhe. Mukuwedzera kune tsvina uye mari, kodzero dzakachengetedzwa dzekodzero uye zvinyorwa zveMMF hurumende inogona kuiswa mukati mekuchengetedzwa kwegoridhe.

Reserve yeUkraine muna 2014

Dzimba dzegoridhe uye mari yeUkraine muna 2014, maererano nedhidhiro yakabudiswa, yakaenzana neyakaenzana ne16.2 mabhiriyoni emadhora. Chikonzero chekuwedzera kwebhajhini chaiva chimiro-nehurongwa kubva kune International Monetary Fund. IMF yakapa $ 978.42 mamiriyoni kune hurumende. Nhoroondo yebhangi rehurumende yenyika yakagamuchira mamiriyoni 397.55 emadhora. Izvo zvakashata zvakakonzerwa nemitemo yenyika yekubhadhara kubhadhara chikwereti kune mari yekunze. Pamusoro pemwedzi iwoyo, National Bank yakashandisa mari yakawanda mumusika wekunze kune dzimwe nyika. Akaita zvose zvekutengeswa kwemari muhuwandu hwemamiriyoni 833.74, uye kutengwa kwayo kwemamiriyoni 98.30. Iyi maitiro ezviito yaive nechinangwa chekurerutsa shanduro yekushandura kwebhadharo yenyika.

Kuderedza kwekuchengetedzwa kwegoridhe muna 2015

Ikoji yegoridhe neyemari yeUkraine, pasinei nekukura kusingatarisirwi mukuwa kwegore ra2014, yakarohwa ne $ 7,5 mabhiriyoni muna December. Maererano nehupfumi hwemashoko, musi waJanuary 1, 2015, yehuwandu hwekuchengetedzwa kwenyika dzakawanda hwaiva ne7,533 mabhiriyoni. Nokufungidzira kwechiitiko chekuchengetedza zvinokwanisika kuverenga imwecheteyo parameter yegore rapera.

Saka, muna December 2014, ukuru hwezvigadziro zvegoridhe zvakaenzana nedhora raiva 9.965.95 mabhiriyoni. Sekuwandisa kwezvinhu zvose, zvinhu zvehurumende zvakaderera ne24,41% mugore rimwe chete. Zvigadziro zvemari dzedzimwe nyika zvakaderera kubva pamabhiriyoni 9 959.95 mamiriyoni kusvika ku 6 mabhiriyoni 618.37 mamiriyoni. Imari yegoridhe neyemari yeUkraine haina kukwereta kubhadhara kodzero, iyo yakasvika kusvika mamiriyoni 3.78 emadhora, uye nhasi vanoita. Pakanga paine kuwedzera kuduku kwema dollar kubva kune 903.84 mamiriyoni akaenzana ne 911.09 mamiriyoni. Nzvimbo yakachengetwa yehurumende muImF yakaramba iri pakero ye $ 0.03 mamiriyoni.

Hurumende inoti chii?

Maererano nemitemo yakagamuchirwa, kuderedzwa uku kunokonzerwa nekubhadharwa kwakakwana uye kwakakwana kwehurumende uye chikwereti cheNBU mune mari yekunze. UNIAN yakashuma kuti dzimba dzegoridhe dzakaderera ne 51.19% (10,450 mabhiriyoni emadhora) kutanga kwegore ra 2015.

Migumisiro yeNovember haisi kunyaradza zvikuru, sezvo goridhe yekuIkraine neyemari inoshandiswa, nhamba dzave dzakagara dziri mukati mezvigaro, ikozvino munaNovember zvisinganzwisisi zvinyorwa zvavo mumakore gumi apfuura. Ikokupedzisira "kurasikirwa kwemahombe" yezvigadzirwa zvepakati iyi yakanyorwa muna December 2004 kune inenge madhora 9.715 mabhiriyoni. I National Bank inoruramisa mamiriro ezvinhu kuburikidza kubhadhara mari yaibva kuNaftogaz yeUkraine kuti inotengeswa gesi. Uyezve, hurumende kune imwe nyika inokweretesa chikwereti is systematically serviced uye inobhadharwa, kusanganisira IMF.

Chipo chakakosha kumamiriro acho chakaitwa nehurongwa hwebumbiro pamushamba we interbank. Nzvimbo dzekutsvaga dzegoridhe neyemari yeUkraine yakatanga kuderera kare muna 2013. Panguva iyoyo, vakanyura 16.83% kana $ 4.130 mabhiriyoni. Forecast Valeria Gontareva nokuda kwekuwedzera kukuru kwezvigadzirwa zvegoridhe muna 2015 zvakakundikana zvachose.

Migumisiro yekuderedza kweRRR

Chirungu chegoridhe neyemari chekukraine, iyo purogiramu yakave ichiwira pamusoro pemakore mashomanana apfuura, inoparadza zvakanyanya hupfumi hwehurumende pamwe chete. Kugadziriswa kwemasana edzimari yepfuma kunoderedza kuvimba uye kunotyisa kutya munharaunda.

Kuparadzana kubva pakachengetedzwa kwekuchengetwa kwemaitiro kwakaitika semugumisiro wekusarudzwa kwemaparamende asina kurongwa. Kuteerera kwakakwana kurongwa kungashandura zvakanyanya mamiriro chaiwo. Nzvimbo yehurumende yeUkraine mubhuku mairi nhasi, maererano nevanhu vakagadzwa, haisi dambudziko rese. Kufungidzira kwakafuridzirwa nekuti IMF pachayo inotsigira zvakasimba nzvimbo iyo iyo yenyika iyo ichasvika $ 23 biliyoni. Hurumende pachayo inofunga nezvechiratidzo che $ 15 mabhiriyoni.

Chii chiri kuitika nhasi?

Panguva ino, zvigadziro zvegoridhe neyemari yeUkraine zvakawira zvinoshamisa, kana tisingafungi nezveramangwana rechabva EU uye IMF. Shanduro yekushandura yehurumende yenyika inoderera zvishoma nezvishoma, chikwereti chevanhu hachiregi kukura. Panguva imwecheteyo, munhu anogona kutaura nechivimbo kuti hyperinflation uye kusagadzikana pamatare ehurumende hazvizoitiki.

Pamamiriro ezvinhu asingafadzi munyika iyi yakaderedza kubudiswa kwezvinyorwa kubva kune boka rekuongorora Da Vinci AG. Kambani iri iri kugadzirira chirevo chechina cheZV kubva muna 2010, asi muchikamu chechipiri cha2014 chakasiya zvachose pfungwa yavo ine chokuita nemaonero asina kunaka. Mamiriro acho, maererano nenyanzvi dzakawanda, anowirirana nehuipi husina kunaka hwemakore matanhatu apfuura mumutambo wemabhizimisi ekutengeserana.

Ndeipi nguva yakaderera yakatanga?

Nzvimbo dzegoridhe nemari yeUkraine muna 2014 dzakanyanya kuderera kupfuura yakarongwa. Maererano nedzimwe nyanzvi, kufambira mberi kwekutengeserana kwezvinhu kwakarongedzerwa muna 2011. Inobatanidza zvakananga kumabasa ehondo muDonbas. Zviitiko zvakapararira kumabvazuva kwenyika zvakagadzirisa sezviripo mamiriro ezvinhu, izvo zvichiri kuzviratidza pachavo muna 2017-2018.

Nzvimbo yegoridhe yeUkraine yakaratidza dynamics yakafanana nechinzvimbo chekuUkraine kutengeswa kune dzimwe nyika pamusika kubva muna 2000 kusvikira muna 2014. Chero mumunda we metallurgy, kutengeserana kwekune dzimwe nyika kwakaderera kubva muna 2007 kusvika muna 2013 neanenge 25%. Panguva imwecheteyo mutengo wakawa neanenge 30%. Vatengi vanobva kuEurope neAsia vane zvakanyanya kuderedza mirairo. Mukufananidzira, nyika dzeMENA dzinotanga kushanda nesimba.

Kuwa kweR: Zvimwe zvinokonzera

IUkraine yekunze kune dzimwe nyika inoshandiswa, asi kwete chete maererano nemamiriro ehupfumi munyika, asi zvakare semugumisiro wokuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa uye kutengesa pamusika wepasi rose. Chikonzero chechiitiko chacho chakananga zvakananga nechinangwa chekushandura mari yehurumende yenyika, kushayikwa kwekugadzirisa muhupfumi, kuenderera mberi kwehuwandu hwematongerwo enyika pamari yehupfumi uye kuenzana kunopera mukurema kwavo muhupfumi hwepasi rose. Izvo zvakafanana mamiriro ezvinhu anowanikwa mumakemikari emakemikari uye mumunda wekugadzira mishonga.

Kuderedza kwekuchengetedzwa kwezvinhu zvakasikwa. Kuwedzera kwematambudziko muna 2014 kwakangoenderana nekuparadzaniswa kweCrimea nekurwa kumabvazuva kwenyika. Mamiriro ezvinhu akaipa munyika yose akasiya zvinyorwa zvayo kuIngland yegoridhe uye mari yekuchengetedza mari. Gumiguru 2014 chaingova kuparara kwepanyama mushure mokudzoka kwa2008 kusvika muna9, apo hupfumi hwehurumende hwakashungurudzwa nekuda kwekubatsira kwekunze kwemari.

Chii chinogona kuchinja mamiriro ezvinhu?

Mamiriro ezvinhu muUkraine, kusanganisira yakakosha uye yakarongedza kuderedzwa kwezvigadziro zvegoridhe, inoda kuitika nokukurumidza nekupindira kweNBU. Zvakakosha kugadzirisa mamiriro ezvinhu mune mamwe mabhizinesi emari ekutengeserana, kusanganisira nekuisa hutungamiri kwenguva pfupi. Kusiyana nemamiriro ezvinhu kunoda kuonekwa kwehurumende yepamutemo, pasina kuedza kugadzirisa mamiriro acho kuburikidza nemari mari. Kusunganidzwa kwemusika wemari ndiyo inonyanya kurongeka, iyo inoda kubviswa kwemadiki masangano emari asina nheyo huru yevatengi kubva mumusika wemisika. Izvo zvinofanira kuonekwa kuti National Bank haina mitsipa yakasimba yekubatsira munzvimbo yekushandurwa kwemari. Zvisarudzo pahutano hweVaKatende veVatariri neNational Bank kuti vakwekwe mari yekunze kune dzimwe nyika uye kukurudzira kusimbiswa kwekutengeswa kune zvakanyanya kudarika.

Chii chinogona kutongwa nemuenzaniso wezvigadzirwa zvegoridhe muUkraine?

Nzvimbo yekuchengetedzwa kwegoridhe yeUkraine inopupurira simba rezvemari rehurumende. Kuzadzisa uye kushandisa mari kubva pane zvakachengetwa kunongorongedzerwa chete neNBU. Chinangwa chikuru chemari ndiyo kuregererwa kwemari yezvokubhadhara mari yebhadharo yekubhadhara chete nekuda kwechinangwa chekushandisa matanho. Nzvimbo dzinoshandiswa kuitisa mabasa ekutsvaga kwekutsvaga mumisika yemari yekunze kwekunze nechinangwa chekutungamira mari yenyika kuchinja. Ndarama uye mari yekunze mari inochengetwa inogona kunzi mari yekuchengetedza simba remari yenyika, achishandiswa izvo nyika inokwanisa kukwanisa kusimbisa mari yenyika, asiwo kuigadzirisa.

Kuwa muzvirongwa zvinoratidza zvakajeka kuti NBU inoshandisa zvikuru mvura inoshandiswa mukuedza kutsigira hryvnia shanduko yemari pamusika wemisika. Kuderedza muzvinyorwa zvinogona kunzi tsika inotyisa, zvichiratidza kushaya simba kwemari. Kuderedza kwekuchengetedzwa kunoratidza hutano hwakanyanya hwekuwedzera kwedhora uye euro, sezvo nyika isingakwanisi kutsigira nzira yemari yenyika. Izvi zvakazara nekuderedza zvakakwana kwekuchengetedzwa kwegoridhe uye kushaya mari. Pasinei nekufananidzira kwakanaka, kuwedzera chaiyo muzvigadziro zvegoridhe hazvitarisirwi.