Time akatevedzana kuongorora dzakazonaka itsva nzira budiriro

Kufunga nguva idzi pachisara kwete husingaoneki Statistical pfungwa uye ari zvinowanzoshandiswa tsika, asi chinonakidza, tinogona kugumisa kuti nyaya iyi akakodzera chaizvo nhasi nokuda kudzidza wandei kwendangariro. Hazvina kunyanya kudiwa mune zvoupfumi basa munhu, saka vazhinji mienzaniso mumabhuku zvesayenzi uye dzakakurumbira akapiwa pfungwa nemaonero kushandiswa kwayo muchirevo chechinyorwa chino. Asi zvinoenderana nechipimo iyi kushandiswa rekudzidza kupima nguva dzino hazvirevi kuguma ikoko.

The chaizvo tsanangudzo nguva dziri dzakawanda kunotiyeuchidza muitiro achiunganidza zvose Statistical mashoko, uye riri chotkom kutara zvimwe zvikamu, mabasa chaiwo, akayera nomutowo, achipa mukuru kutendeseka. Nemamwe mashoko, ari tsananguro ipi Chiitiko uchishandisa girafu apo abscissa yakatarwa nguva kuyerwa zviratidzo, uye ayo chaiyo nokukura mumuviri uri ordinate akabatana.

Chaizvoizvo nzira nguva dzino kuongorora panguva vakaumba hwaro kurondedzerwa mitemo yakawanda mumuviri uye michina kwendangariro. kungotaurawo wavo akabvumira kwacho kuderedza kurondedzerwa chairo kwemasvomhu mashoko. Asi kwete pezvakaitwa vose vaigona zvinoitwawo chaiwo Masvomhu. A mhinduro matambudziko maviri chikuru haina akadzima. Ivo:

- Pakusarudza hunhu akatevedzana;

- kufungidzira.

Saka kuongorora nguva dzinotevedzana ambopiwa mamwe zvakasimbisa ayo budiriro uye kwayo zvombo akaonekwa ari mupfumi yakatarwa maturusi uye nzira.

A muenzaniso chaiwo waiva uwandu nguva series, wakatangwa muna 1976 na Box uye Jenkins. Muenzaniso kudzidza webasa pamwedzi kambani yendege kwamakore gumi namaviri munguva 1949-1960 makore, vakaratidza kuvapo yenhengo vaviri rinenge Linear kuitika uye pamwaka kuchinja. Kana kuwedzera motokari yave ichiwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, uye zvichienderana mwaka, zvikamu nguva nenguva dzinoputika uye kuora basa. Izvi rworudzi tsanangudzo anonzi multiplicative seasonality womuenzaniso.

Mugore iroro chete Box uye Jenkins zvinganaka munhu anonakidza maererano kufungidzira, asi nguva yakawanda chaizvo uye nzira kunzwisisa kuti autoregressive revatema ichifamba paavhareji (ARIMA).

Kudzidza urongwa, vari iro pachena externally vakagamuchira kupararira nzira dzinoshanda yakapindira nguva dzino. Akanga inorondedzerwa 80-ies wekupedzisira remakore. Nzira ine kudzidza pezvakaitwa mushure Kupindira wegadziriro kubva kunze. Time akatevedzana kuongorora chaiva kuongorora pakatanga nzira itsva management, kushandisa dzakasiyana anoziva, kufurira ari zvemitemo muitiro , uye zvichingodaro.

Spectral kuongorora nguva dzinotevedzana akaonekwa nokuda yapfuura nzira. Pakati Kukoshesa dzekuziva kuti nzira iri pachena kuonekwa nguva uye maitikiro. Zvinonzi nevakawanda kushandiswa Masvomhu vari kunzwisisa nhamba, Fourier rokuchinja.

Kuwanda nzira uye unyanzvi, iyo inoshandisa nguva dzino pachisara inosimbisa sei iyi yakaorera ivhu kuti kumwe kutsvakurudza. Arondedzera pezvakaitwa aya yainetsa uye zvinoda mumwe ruzivo kubva muongorori. waruka Strong kukura pachake Michina kombiyuta zvakakonzera mhedziso kuti ichi mhando ongororo kuvandudza. Asi ubiquity Indaneti akaita kuti iwanikwe mukuru muchikwata azvino tsvakurudzo munzvimbo iyi.

Kuti haisi nguva idzi pachisara anoshandisa kubudirira mutambi ari Forex pamusika, ndiwo kudzidza nekambani kukura purogiramu ambotirega maneja kuva wechokwadi inokosha mutemo uye musika kuongororwa inopa navanopinda munda webasa kuti telemarketers uye mamaneja, vachibvumira kuti kuchinja mutengo sandara uye kuwanda zvigadzirwa kutengeswa kana mabasa kuti ubereke zvikomborero.

Mumwe nzira ongororo akakodzerwa vainyatsotarisirwa uye kunoda kunyatsodzidza. Uye kana uine chimwe wavo vanofarira, chinangwa nyaya kunokwanisika.