Kitchin kutenderera. Pfupi zvoupfumi zvinogara. Juglar kutenderera. Kuznets kutenderera

The zvoupfumi kutenderera - munhu kusiyana-siyana kukosha chakakomba wechipfuwo chigadzirwa kwenguva refu. kuderera uku kana nokuwedzera GDP Rinobatanidzwa ne padariro pakukura. Kune mhando inoverengeka oscillations akadaro, izvo zvakasiyana refu. Most pfupi - Kitchin kutenderera, nguva iyo - 3-5 makore. Other nezvoupfumi vave akadzidzawo mubvunzo kwakakomba kugadzirwa nokufamba. Mari zvakare zvinogara Juglar, Kuznets uye Kondratiev.

mazwi Key

Nokufamba ayo kukura, sezvo upfumi hwenyika ari nokukurumidza kukura nguva uye kurega kunotanga. Kitchin kutenderera anotsanangura pfupi-rokuti nokufamba. Kondratieff chinozunguzirwa anofukidza hafu yezana remakore kuchinja. Pfungwa yezvebhizimisi kutenderera Mupfungwa yakakura kunoreva nenguva iyo unotora mumwe chete nguva kumuka nokuwa, kusvika mumwe. Matanho maviri aya kunokosha. An chokukomborerwa mavambo uye kuguma kutenderera ndiyo chikamu kukura chaiyo kwakakomba mumhuri chigadzirwa. Nepo kazhinji nokufamba izvi bhizimisi basa zvikuru nezvimwewo.

History of kudzidza

Pfungwa hupfumi kutenderera chakarambwa nevamiririri chechikoro chekare. Kuvapo kwavo, iri tsika, ivo akatsanangura nehondo uye kurwisana. Chavanotanga Akaongorora ne Sismondi. basa rake rave vakazvipira kuti kutya muna 1825 mu England, rekutanga dambudziko zvoupfumi kwakaitika munguva yorugare. Sismondi uye bhururu wake Robert Owen akaritumidza chinokonzera overproduction uye underconsumption, zvinokonzerwa kusaenzanirana pakati pakugoverwa mari pakati vemo. Vakanga vachida ehurumende Kupindira ari upfumi uye gutsaruzhinji. In zvedzidzo yeChina, basa ravo haana pakarepo mukurumbira. Zvisinei, yokuti pasi-kuparadzwa chinokonzera nematambudziko, ipapo ichavakwa ikoko kuchikoro vanozivikanwa Keynesian. Sismondi dzidziso yakazokudziridzwa naCharles Dunoyer. Akaisa mberi pfungwa shanduka zvinogara. Karl Marx akaona periodic nematambudziko sezvo huru dambudziko chero capitalist munzanga uye vakaprofita yechiKomonisiti chimurenga. Genri Dzhordzh akadana zvokufungidzira nyika chikuru chinokonzera recessions uye zvairatidza kutanga rimwe mutero pamusoro kugadzirwa chinhu.

mhando zvinogara

Muna 1860, Economist French Klement Zhyuglyar kutanga chinorondedzerwa zvoupfumi nokufamba ane kakawanda kwemakore 7-11. Yozef Shumpeter akapikisa kuti ine muzvikamu zvina:

• Kuwedzera. Pane kuwedzera mukurima mavhoriyamu, achifumira mitengo, kufarira prices kuwa.
• Crisis. Panguva iyi, chiwondomoke Nehunde exchanges, uye mabhizimisi akawanda uye makambani kuenda zvachose.
• Recession. Pricing uye kugadzirwa mavhoriyamu kuramba kuwira uye kufarira rates, kusiyana, varikukura.
• Recovery. Exchange ré-kutanga kushanda kuburikidza mitengo uye mari kuwa.

Schumpeter akabatanidza dzisangopfuma pamwe nezvokukura kugadzirwa kunyatsoshanda, chivimbo mune remangwana vatengi kuti uwandu hwezvinhu zvose zvabatanidzwa. kudiwa uye mitengo. In pakati XX remakore, iye zvinganaka mumwe typology pakati zvinogara dzavo refu. Pakati pavo:

• Kitchin kutenderera. Zvinotora 3 kusvika 5 years.
• Juglar kutenderera. nguva yaro - makore 7-11.
• Kuznets kutenderera. Rinobatanidzwa oupfumi mu kwezvivako. Zvinotora 15 kusvika 25 makore.
• Kondrat'eva chinozunguzirwa kana refu muitiro yatinofema. Zvinotora kubvira 45 kusvika 60 makore.

Nhasi, kufarira zvinogara ungaderedza zvishoma. Izvi imhaka yokuti macroeconomics ano haritsigiri pfungwa yokuti nguva dzose nguva nenguva oscillations.

Kitchin kutenderera

Zvinotora inenge 40 mwedzi. Izvi kwenguva pfupi nokufamba zvakatanga kuongororwa naJoseph Kitchin panguva 1920. chikonzero Its anonzi kwekanguva lag ari kufamba mashoko kutungamirira kunonotsa sarudzo rokuita yemakambani. Yemakambani vakaitei kuvandudza yezvokutengeserana ezvinhu nokuwedzera kugadzirwa. Izvi zvinoguma zvizere Utilisation kuti basa uye guru. Somugumisiro, pashure imwe nguva, nepamusika yava dzinozara nenhumbi. Unhu hwavo kuipa nokuda murairo Uti. Kudiwa inowira, mutengo - zvakafanana zvinhu vari kutanga rikaunganidza mu dzokuchengetera. Pashure imwe nguva, boka anotanga kutapudzwa kugadzirwa. Uye anopfuura Kitchin kutenderera.

Zvinokonzera nemigumisiro

Kitchin upfumi zvinogara chokuita kushaya mukana nguva imwe tinyatsonzwisisa musika ezvinhu. Yemakambani vanoda apo kutanga kuwedzera kugadzirwa, uye kusarudza kuti kuderedza inzwi rayo. The kunonoka iri nokuti kuti vashandirwi havasi pakarepo kuti rikunde zvino pamusika - romugove kana kudiwa. Zvino vanofanira uyewo tarisa mashoko. It akabata uye Implementation kuti mhinduro uchidzidzira. Kwete nyore pakarepo kuwana vashandi vatsva kana akarara kure vakura. Saka, pfupi Kitchin kutenderera kusonganirana kunonoka kuunganidzwa uye kubudiswa ruzivo.

Yozef Kitchin: Summary

Ndiye nyanzvi yokuBritain mumunda nhamba uye muzvinabhizimisi. Yozef Kitchin aishanda migodhi indasitiri muSouth Africa. Muna 1923 iye rakatanga kudzidza kwenguva pfupi mabhizimisi zvinogara muUnited Kingdom uye United States munguva kubvira 1890 kusvika 1922. Yavo nguva akanga ava nemakore 40.. Zvakabuda tsvakurudzo yake, akataura basa vanoda "zvinogara uye nezvemaitiro ezvoupfumi zvinhu." Munyori anotsanangura kuvapo vibrations zvakadaro mupfungwa chinja kusvika capitalist kwadzinoita kugadzirwa uye nguva lags nokubata mashoko zvarinoita chirongwa kusarudza yemakambani. Nemamwe mashoko, Kitchin kutenderera kunoratidzwa mutemo nerubatsiro nenhumbi ne emakambani maererano vanofanira mumusika.

A mumakore 7-11

Juglar kutenderera kakapetwa kaviri kupfuura Kitchin. Asi kuvapo kwayo musayendisiti kuisa shure muna 1862. Pakati zvinokonzera vanozivikanwa nokufamba Juglar akadana shanduko mari iri pazvinhu yesangano, kwete chete padanho basa. Muna 2010, chidzidzo uchishandisa spectral kuongorora akasimbisa kuvapo zvinogara zvakadaro mune simba zvenyika chakakomba mumhuri chigadzirwa.

Kuznets kutenderera

Izvi oscillation anotarisirwa. Vakanga kutanga akaongorora Simon Kuznets ari 1930s. Vanotora makore anenge 15-25. Chikonzero ichi cyclical munyori anonzi wevanotungamirira kwendangariro. Aiona mutsika vanotama uye anoenderana kuvakwa booms. Smith zvakare Paaiita navo sezvo kwezvivako inivhesitimendi zvinogara. Vamwe nezvoupfumi ano kubatanidza mashoko zvinogara pamwe-gore 18 nokufamba mukukosha pamusoro penyika sechinhu chinoita okuwana. Output vaona kutanga mutero chaiyo. Zvisinei, Fred Harrison anotenda kuti hazvina kubatsira kunyange vasanyanya cyclicality. Muna 1968 Hauri vakatsoropodza kudzidza Kuznets. Akataura kuti zvakaipa Data vakanga vakaongorora. Zvisinei, Smith akati zvinogara akataura vanogona kuonekwa kukura munyika kukuru mumhuri chigadzirwa uye pasina kushandisa Sefa tega navo.

tsvakurudza Kondratieff

Most mabhizimisi zvinogara refu vane nguva makore 45-60. Rinozivikanwa Economist Soviet Kondratieff aidavira kuti nokufamba kukanganisa sectors zvose upfumi hwenyika. Paaiita mitengo, mubereko prices. Mumwe kutenderera Kondratiev akasiyanisa muzvikamu zvina. Huru indekisi, raakanga akadzidza, aiva kugadzirwa tichitarisa ukoshi. To musi, pane nguva mafungu shanu:

• Kubva 1890 kusvika 1850, nokuda pakuonekwa hwemvura injini uye kutanga kushandiswa kwakapararira nedonje.
• Kubva 1850 kusvika 1900. chikuru injini simbi njanji uye simbi kugadzirwa.
• Kubva 1900 kusvika 1950 chokuita nokuparadzirwa nemagetsi uye kwemashoko makemikari indasitiri.
• Kubva 1950 kusvika 1990 sectors kuva propulsive Pharmaceuticals uye motokari.
• New chinozunguzirwa chokuita ruzivo uye kukurukurirana michina sezvo muinjini mberi.

Kuwedzera zvokugadzira zvinhu tsananguro, mamwe masayendisiti chokuita refu Kondratieff zvinogara pamwe wevanotungamirira chinja, kufungidzira pamwe nenyika uye chikwereti deflation. Pane shanduro dzakawanda ano dzidziso Economist yeSoviet. Vanogona kukamurwa kuva mapoka maviri. Wokutanga anotarira shanduko mune zvemichina. Wechipiri inoongorora mbiri yatinofema. Zvisinei, nezvoupfumi vakawanda havabvumi dzidziso Kondratieff refu mafungu. Kunyange zvakawanda pamakakatanwa dzakaripoteredza chii makore vaiona kutanga nechimwe kutenderera. Kutanga yose mari dambudziko zvinonyatsoenderana zvakakwana zvakanaka dzidziso Kondratieff, zvichiratidza kutanga munguva kuderera.