Quantitative Risk Analysis: sei kusarasikirwa bhizimisi?

Nhasi, mune vazhinji dzebhizimisi zvirongwa zvokuvaka, kunyange kana ane akakodzera chine Analytical chinotaurwa, dambudziko riri kujekesa chete kuti kuongorora mari kana rwezvemabhengi ngozi uye regai kuratidza zvizere-siyana njodzi. Zvisinei, nyanzvi vanofanira kushandisa zvikuru zvose Qualitative uye quantitative ngozi kuongorora. Kunyatsoongorora yechipiri mhando.

Quantitative ongororo rinongoshandisirwa nengozi nyanzvi mune Qualitative kuongorora se avo izvo kushandisa chinokosha kukanganisa chokubudirira zvinangwa. Pakuitisa kuongorora zvakadaro zvinofanira akaonga mugumisiro zviitiko zvakadaro vane basa zvakafanorongwa digitaalinen Rating.

Quantitative kuongorora dzimwe nguva anogona rirege inodiwa kukura inoshanda matanho sei pangozi. Rakajairika pakati inowanzoshandiswa Analytical nzira ndeinotevera:

- utetsa kudzidza, unosanganisira kuziva kuratidzwa nechokwadi mumwe nomumwe che yezvebhizimisi chirongwa vachitsigira mamwe zvinhu zvitsigiro mutengo;

- zvokuongorora projected mari ukoshi kuburikidza vachiwedzera kukosha nerimwe ndingangokuvara parinowanika, izvi zvinoguma muchidimbu.

Quantitative kuongorora chero mari chirongwa inorondedzera kusanganiswa kukosha dzimwe njodzi. Iye inobva munharaunda fungidziro yokuti, akavhiyiwa yokutsvakurudza uye akarongeka nhamba.

Quantitative ongororo iri kuitwa mu chiitiko maviri ezvinhu: inokosha kukarukureta yacho basa racho uye rizere Qualitative kuongorora. Basa Its iri kusanganiswa nokuyerwa matambudziko zvimwe zvinhu achinje simba pamusoro nzira kuratidza kubudirira racho.

Aiwanzoshandisa nzira quantitative pachisara bznes zvirongwa zvakadaro:

- the Kuongororwa vakadai kuita zviratidzo sezvo mambure chipo kukosha uye mwero yokudzoka, uye profitability indekisi;

- kuchinja kubva pakati dhisikaundi mwero ;

- Monte-Carlo nzira (zita rechipiri - simulation);

- kuvakwa chisarudzo muti.

Zvose izvi Analytical nzira basa zvirongwa pahwaro probabilistic nzira.

Quantitative uye Qualitative pachisara uye kushanda kwavo kunobva zvinodiwa nokuti vanosvika (zvabuda), mashoko nechigadziko uye pamwero kwekuronga rakavimbika. Somuenzaniso, nzira iri kunobatsira chaizvo kuti zviduku mabasa vari: kuongorora igadziridzwe pamusoro dhisikaundi mitemo uye aikanganiswa. Nokuti makuru mabasa ari - simulation uye kuvakwa makakombama mukana nokugoverwa. Kana mugumisiro chirongwa, zvichienderana zvimwe zvisarudzo, zvinokosha kuita kuvakwa chisarudzo muti.

Nokudaro, kuongorora nzira inofanira kutevedzerwa vari kunzwisisa dzavo nyore zvipenyu pamusoro wakatarwa pachikuva, uye zvikuru kwakatooma uye zvinoda mamwe mashoko - pamwe mugumisiro kururamiswa mabhizimisi muzvirongwa.