Intersectoral nomwero. Model pamusoro interbranch nemwero. Dambudziko Inter-sectoral nechiyero

On maronga Enough akati. Chero mafungiro edu iyi, tiri kuramba nenguva yatinoona anoenderana simba ravo nezvido zvavo. Uye kana muupenyu hwako imwe kana mbiri vanhu vanogona kuva chakaipa urongwa, ipapo upfumi hurumende, uye kunyange yose Union masimba zvisiri correlated mari ane purofiti kunogona zvinoshamisa kukanganisa. Naizvozvo, Inter-sectoral takatsiga mune upfumi ano yayo zvakadzama kwenhumbi uye mabasa ane kutungamirira chinzvimbo.

Tsauranisa womuenzaniso - chii?

Economic-kwemasvomhu Modelling kuti hurongwa uye pezvakaitwa kuti kushingaira anoshandisa vanonzi pachiyero mienzaniso inobva kuenzanisa uye Optimization ekudzidza mari. In kwemasvomhu nemashoko, pakuenzanisa nzira kunosanganisira rokuvaka kwegadziriro equations kuti kurondedzera mamiriro ezvinhu vakaenzana pakati zvigadzirwa uye kudiwa zvinhu izvi.

boka Kudzidza kazhinji ine anoverengeka zvoupfumi masangano, izvo zviri chikamu kugadzirwa umene muno, uye chikamu yabviswa pepuranga kwayo uye kunonzwisiswa so "chigadzirwa chokupedzisira". Balance mienzaniso kuti vanoshandisa shoko rokuti "zvekuvaka" pane "chigadzirwa", zvigoneke kudzora Zvakanyanya Kunaka Panguva Yepamuviri kushandiswa mari.

Chii chinoita muenzaniso

interbranch Chiyero nzira - chimwe chezvinhu zvinokosha zvinhu zvoupfumi vanoongorora. Zviri chizvaro pakati coefficients anoratidza kudyiwa zvinhu pamusoro dzokugara dzakasarudzwa kushandisa. Kuti agadzirise tafura vane masero vakazadzwa mirayiro zvakananga mari kuti kugadzirwa munhu chairema kugadzirwa.

Nokuda kunzwisisa wegadziriro kushandisa waivako zvechokwadi chero chimwe zvebhizimisi hazvibviri. Naizvozvo, coefficients (ratios) vari dzaona pamusoro vanonzi "indasitiri wakachena", kureva. E. Mumwe kuti integrates mukugadzira zvivako zvose pasina panyaya kuzviisa pasi kana chimiro tenzi. Izvi zvinoitawo kuti dambudziko chinokosha pakugadzirira rokuti mashoko yokutevedzera zvoupfumi gadziriro.

Nobel Prize pamusana womuenzaniso

Kokutanga nezvokudiwa kuwana pakati nepakati pagadzirwe mapazi akasiyana-siyana vakauya nezvoupfumi Soviet ari kudzidza Nhamba upfumi kukura kwemakore 1923-1924. The vaitaura rokutanga raiva mashoko chete pamusoro unhu Links pakati kugadzirwa sectors uye kushandisa zvigadzirwa izvi.

Asi chaiyo kushanda kunoita pfungwa idzi hadzina kuwanikwa. Kwapera makore mashomanana Economist V. V. Leontev akagadzira kukosha Inter-sectoral linkages ari upfumi. basa rake rave vakazvipira asika muenzaniso kwemasvomhu kuti anotibvumira kwete chete kuongorora mamiriro National upfumi, asi kuti vatevedzere zvinobvira yemugumo.

Interbranch mwero ari munyika yainzi nzira "wedzera-goho". Uye muna 1973, musayendisiti akanga paakavapa Nobel Prize muna nemari nekuda kukura muchinjikwa sectoral kuongorora rikashandiswa yokutevedzera.

How kushandisa muenzaniso

Muenzaniso Leontief chiyamuro-goho pachiyero kushandiswa kuongorora mamiriro of US upfumi. Pakazosvika yokungotaura postulates kutora chimiro chaicho Linear equations. kukarukureta Izvi zvakaratidza kuti prices wakatangwa nemasayendisiti sezvo zviratidzo zviri linkages pakati sectors, muri yakatsiga zvikuru uye kugara.

Panguva Second World War rakachengetedzwa vakaongorora Leontief chiyamuro-goho pakuenzanisa youpfumi Nazi Germany. Maererano migumisiro kudzidza ichi US mauto vaidana sokuronga zvinokosha kushungurudza. Uye pashure pehondo, unhu uye bhuku Zvipire-Lease zvakare vachiri ndakatsunga pachishandiswa ruzivo vakawana kuburikidza muenzaniso Leontief chiyamuro-goho mwero.

The Soviet Union akavaka muenzaniso ka7 kubvira 1959. Masayendisiti vaifungidzira kuti kwemakore mashanu apfuura, Ukama yemari anogona kunzi wakatsiga, uye naizvozvo vose ezvinhu kuonekwa kunofambira mberi. Zvisinei, magadzirirwo haana kugamuchira widest kufambiswa, t. To. On ukama zvibereko sectors zvikuru kukanganiswa zvematongerwo mamiriro ezvinhu. The chaiyo Ukama zveupfumi vaionekwa se yechipiri.

Musimboti pfungwa

Model pakati interbranch pachiyero - tsanangudzo ukama pakati kusunungurwa chigadzirwa iri imwe indasitiri, uye mari uye kudyiwa fuma sectors zvose zvinobatanidzwa kugadzirwa zvinhu izvi. Somuenzaniso, nokuti kugadzirwa marasha, simbi maturusi zvinodiwa; Panguva iyoyowo, simbi inoda marasha kuti simbi. Saka, mazano-goho mwero Chakaoma kuwana nhamba emarasha, umo upfumi mugumisiro zvichabviswa maximized.

Mune zvimwewo tingateerera kutaura kuti migumisiro kuvakwa muenzaniso anogona kuona kuti kunyatsoshanda okuwana zvavo, kuti kuwana Zvakanyanya Kunaka Panguva Yepamuviri nzira Pricing, uye kuziva zvinhu zvinonyanya kukosha mune zvoupfumi kukura. Uyezve, nzira iyi zvinoita kuti tikwanise kuita kufungidzira.

chikuru mabasa

• Yokuronga patsva dzinotsanagura kubereka, inobva acho uye zvokunyama Zvinoumba indasitiri mari.
• Mufananidzo kusunungurwa chigadzirwa uye kuparadzirwa kwayo.
• Kudzidza hwakadzama pamusoro kugadzirwa kwacho, kusikwa zvinhu uye mabasa, mari chizvarwa pachiyero zvoupfumi sectors.
• Optimization of akaratidza zvinokosha zvinhu okuwana.

Nokuti nzira "wedzera-goho" anotsanangurwa Analytical uye Statistical mabasa. Analytical anobvumira kufanotaura simba dzinotsanagura kukura maindasitiri uye upfumi yose; kuti vatevedzere zvinhu nokuchinja dzakasiyana Data uye zviratidzo. The Statistical basa rinopa kusachinja-chinja vachiongorora mashoko akasiyana zvinyorwa - kubva emakambani, emunharaunda zvemari, mutero mabasa, etc ...

Kwemasvomhu womuenzaniso maonero

In kwemasvomhu nemashoko, kutakura muenzaniso - kwegadziriro differential equations (uye kwete nguva dzose Linear), izvo zvinoratidza mamiriro ezvinhu zvakanyatsoenzana pakati nhamba anogadzirwa indasitiri zvinhu uye kudiwa payo.

Models zvoupfumi gadziriro kazhinji anounzwa tabular chimiro (ona. Fig.). It uwandu hwezvinhu zvose zvabatanidzwa. chigadzirwa iri muzvikamu zviviri: yomukati (zvenguva) uye chokupedzisira. The National upfumi anoonekwa sezvo kwegadziriro N ushamwari maindasitiri, chimwe nechimwe chinoita basa kubudisa uye unoparadza.

quadrants

Leontief chiyamuro-goho mwero iri muzvikamu zvina (quadrants). Mumwe quadrant (Fig. Ivo rakaverengwa 1-4) ine upfumi kugutsikana. In wokutanga kuratidzwa muchinjikwa sectoral kukurukurirana zvinhu - munhu worudzii checkerboard. The coefficients iri panguva mharadzano pamusoro pemitsara neshongwe, akasarudzwa xy uye ane ruzivo pamusoro chekubuda zvigadzirwa pakati pamatavi. X uye Y - Nhamba maindasitiri kuti pave uye zvinodya zvigadzirwa. Rokuti x23 Somuenzaniso, inofanira zvichishandurwa sezvinotevera: kukosha achishandisa kugadzirwa, wakabudiswa kwemauto 2 uye 3 rwapedzwa indasitiri (zvinhu mari). Verengai zvinhu zvose rokutanga quadrant rinomiririra wepagore mari mari zvinhu.

The quadrant wechipiri kutaridza wokupedzisira zvigadzirwa zvose mukugadzira maindasitiri. The magumo chigadzirwa unonzi, kuti anoenda mhiri kugadzirwa zvekutepfenyura munzvimbo wokupedzisira zvinodyiwa uye kuwanda. Rakawedzerwa nepakati dhayagiramu inoratidza nzira kushandisa chigadzirwa ichi: paruzhinji uye pasiri kuparadzwa, kuchengetwa, kupora uye ekisipoti.

Chechitatu quadrant kurondedzera nyika mari. Ndicho uwandu mambure goho (mubayiro uye mari mapazi) uye muripo Fund. Zvino kuratidzwa chechina ruzivo pamusoro chokupedzisira kuparadzira. Zviri panguva mharadzano pakati mbiru uye mitsara iri quadrants rechitatu wechipiri. ruzivo urwu kunokosha kunzwisisa paumbwe ezvinhu mari uye zvekushandisa chavagari, zvinopa mari, mari vasiri zvibereko bhora , uye zvichingodaro. D.

Cherechedza kuti Verengai zvachose rechipiri, rwechitatu norwechina quadrants (nomumwe) inofanira kusimbiswa kuti gore chigadzirwa.

akaisa pamusoro equations

Pasinei chokwadi kuti chakakomba National chigadzirwa asingadi pamutemo kuva mumwe pamusoro zvikamu, zvichiri chipo nechiyero pepa. Mbiru kurudyi rechipiri quadrant, uye rwonzi rwokuyera riri pane wechitatu kuratidza chakakomba National chigadzirwa. Mashoko akawana kubva zvinhu izvi, kunoita kuti kutarisa Kururama yose nomwero. Uyezve, unogona kubatsira pakusika zvoupfumi uye akarongeka womuenzaniso.

Kureva indasitiri zvakakomba chigadzirwa ne X vaine indekisi chaienzanirana Mapazi zvinogona akagadzira sezvo mbiri dzinokosha reshiyo. Zvinoreva wokutanga mukana wokuti vanhu vanga zvoupfumi ndiyo zvinotevera: uwandu zvokunyama mari chero bazi upfumi uye ayo mambure kugadzirwa vakaenzana yakasindimara mumhuri chigadzirwa chakarondedzerwa indasitiri (mbiru).

Mukana wokuti vanhu vanga vane interbranch Chiyero yechipiri inoratidza kuti uwandu zvinhu mari upise mumwe chigadzirwa uye yokupedzisira chigadzirwa mumwe kana imwe nzvimbo dziri kwakakomba goho indasitiri (nepakati mutsetse).

Mugumo maonero ezvinhu equations

With pamusoro zvose Masvomhu ari, vari chakaunzwa muenzaniso pfungwa dzakadaro:

• yakananga mari chizvaro coefficients A = {au};
• zvakakomba goho Vector X (mbiru);
• Vector yokupedzisira chigadzirwa Y (mbiru).

Model mu chizvaro muchimiro achapiwa yakarondedzerwa ukama:

X = demo + Y.

Zvazvinosarira chete kuyeuka kuti pachiyero kwakafanana upenyu-kukura, uye maererano mari.