Kupatsanura utariri yokutevedzera. Kupatsanura zvoupfumi uye akarongeka yokutevedzera

Chimbofunga pfungwa "yokutevedzera. Kupatsanura mhando "kubva esayenzi maonero.

kupatsanura

Pari, pane kupesana kupinda munhu mapoka. Zvichienderana chinangwa kupatsanura kwakadaro chinorehwa econometric mienzaniso:

• yokungotaura uye Analytical pevara chokuita kutsvakurudza zvakafanana maitiro uye mapatani;
• Chikumbiro womuenzaniso dzakanangana nekugadzirisa chaizvo nezvinetso zvemari. Izvi zvinosanganisira kufungidzira yokutevedzera, zvoupfumi, pachisara utariri.

Kupatsanura zvoupfumi uye akarongeka mhando uye vakabatana kutsanangurwa zvavo kushanda.

Contents Modèles

Zvichienderana, zvinhu nyaya, mienzaniso yakadaro vanokamurwa muzvikwata:

• kugadzirwa womuenzaniso yose;
• munhu nzira nokuti kumatunhu, Sub-hurongwa, sectors;
• mapatani kunzwisisa zviri kuparadzwa, kugadzirwa, kuparadzirwa uye paumbwe dzevanhu zvinhu, mari, mari ukama.

Kupatsanura pakati date mienzaniso mapoka inosanganisira hurumende ichiisa STRUCTURAL, chadzo, STRUCTURAL uye dzichipfekeka subsystems.

In kuitisa tsvakurudzo pamusoro upfumi chechetere, STRUCTURAL mienzaniso anotsanangura ukama wacho subsystems. Sehwakajairika nzira unogona sarudzai muenzaniso interbranch nehurongwa.

Functional dzakasiyana inoshandiswa mari mutemo ukama chinokosha-mari. Kunogona kuva mumwe chete chinhu rinomiririrwa muchimiro chadzo, STRUCTURAL siyana panguva imwe chete.

Kushandiswa muzvidzidzo pachiyero STRUCTURAL mienzaniso zveupfumi makateyiwa interconnection subsystems. Typical muchiitiko ichi vari Inter-bazi noukama womuenzaniso.

Functional mhando zvinonzi nevakawanda kushandiswa mumunda zvoupfumi murau. Typical pano vari yemashoko nevatengi Maitiro ari ezvinhu ukama chinokosha-mari.

Kusiyana pakati Modèles

Ngationgororei mashoko akasiyana yokutevedzera. Kupatsanura pakati mhando pari kushandiswa mune upfumi, anewo hurumende ichiisa normative uye anotsanangura kusarudza. Kushandisa anorondedzera mhando zvinogona vakaongorora kutsanangura chokwadi kuti kufanotaura mukana kuvapo kwezvimwe zvinhu.

Chinangwa rairatidza pamushandirapamwe

Inosanganisira empirical kuziva akasiyana dependencies ari upfumi ano. Somuenzaniso, akaratidza Statistical regularities upfumi unhu akasiyana evanhu mapoka, kudzidza zvinobvira nzira Kugadzirwa dzakananga pezvakaitwa pasi kugara ezvinhu pasina Kufurirwa nevamwe. Pachishandiswa zvabuda vakawana mukufamba imwe ongororo, unogona kuvaka muenzaniso nevatengi kudiwa.

pamutemo womuenzaniso

With dzavo rubatsiro, tinogona kufungidzira chinangwa basa. Somuenzaniso, fungidzira muenzaniso Zvakanyanya Kunaka Panguva Yepamuviri kuronga.

Economic-kwemasvomhu muenzaniso inogona normative uye rairatidza. Kana womuenzaniso interbranch mwero rinoshandiswa panguva kuongorora kukura rapfuura nguva, izvozvo rairatidza. Kana pakuverenga achibatsirwa yenzira youpfumi zviri normative.

zviratidzo Modèles

Kupatsanura pakati mhando anofunga chaiyo zvinhu kunyatsoburitsa pfungwa nenharo. The kunonyanyisa kupararira rairatidza nzira inowanikwa simulation.

Zvichienderana ari kuziva miedzo Matambudziko pane kupatsanura muenzaniso kune kuita kuti zvinosanganisira zvimwe zvinhu chokwadi uye randomness, uye nokuramba wakaomerera panzira deterministic yokutevedzera. Zvakakosha kusiyanisa chokwadi, iyo yakavakirwa dzidziso mukana, uye nechokwadi kuti zvinopfuura miganhu murayiro.

Kupatsanura mhando maererano nzira kufungisisa nguva chinhu

Zvinofungirwa kupatsanura pakati yemashoko chinhu ichi munyika simba uye kunofambira mberi marudzi. Kunofambira mberi mhando zvinoratidza kufunga mitemo yose imwe nguva. Dynamic embodiments inozivikanwa panguva kuchinja. Zvichienderana pamusoro nguva kubvumirwa kupatsanura mhando pamusoro zvinotevera kuita:

• pfupi, ya chiri isingasviki gore;
• svikiro-refu, akaverenga kwenguva munhu makore mashanu;
• Long-refu, akaverenga kuti kwemakore anopfuura mashanu.

Zvichienderana chaizvo chirongwa, zvingava kuchinja kushandisa yokutevedzera.

Maumbirwe kufambidzana

Inobva kupatsanura womuenzaniso une chimiro kufambidzana, rakasarudzwa nokuti basa. Ainyanya kushandiswa dzemaitirwe uye kuongorora vekirasi Linear yokutevedzera. Funga Mhando zvoupfumi yokutevedzera. Kupatsanura pakati yemashoko ichi mhando anobatsira kudzidza kuchinja zvinodyiwa uye nevatengi kudiwa panyaya kukura kwavo zvinhu mari. Uyezve, achishandisa mumwe muenzaniso zvoupfumi inoongorora kuchinja zvinodiwa chavagari kana zvezvibereko kugadzirwa, zvinofungidzirwa kubudirira zvinhu neimwe ezvinhu.

Zvichienderana nhamba endogenous uye exogenous variables hunoumba muenzaniso akashandisa kupatsanura pakati yokutevedzera zvipenyu izvi mu namahwindo uye akazaruka nehurongwa.

Chero muenzaniso zvinofanira kusanganisira kanenge imwe endogenous shanduka, uye saka zvachose akazaruka gadziriro kuwana zvikuru matambudziko. Models zvisingakwanisi zvinosanganisira exogenous variables (namahwindo Shanduro) zvakare asiri zvakajairika. Kuti asike zvakadai Muchiitiko, zvakafanira kuti zvakazara disengage kubva kwezvakatipoteredza, kurambidza yakanyanya coarsening chaidzo zvoupfumi rine kwokunze ukama.

With kuwedzera nokufambira mberi akarongeka uye upfumi kutsvakurudza kupatsanura pakati yokutevedzera, hurongwa, zvikuru kuoma. Pari kunongova vakavhengana, uyewo yakagozha womuenzaniso mamiriro. Rakabatana kupatsanura pakati ruzivo womuenzaniso hausi iiswe. Zvinogona kucherechedzwa vanenge gumi nevaviri parameters, ine inogara muenzaniso mhando.

marudzi Modèles

rondedzero muitiro muenzaniso Monographic kana kutukana achipfeka kana chinoshamisa. Kazhinji ndiwo mubvunzo pamusoro mitemo, mutemo, theorem no, kana mubatanidzwa parameters anoverengeka.

Graphic womuenzaniso chinoitwa muchimiro vanodhirowa, mepu, vanodhirowa. Somuenzaniso, ukama pakati mutengi vakarayira uye mari inoshandiswa zvinogona anomiririrwa rinoronga namasanhu. The girafu zvinoratidza ukama pakati zvakawanda maviri.

Real kana mumuviri mienzaniso rokusika zvinhu kuti vachiri chaizvoizvo havapo.

The mwero aggregation nzvimbo

Pane kupatsanura mashoko yokutevedzera pahwaro on:

• emo, achibatsirwa iyo Kuongororwa uye for nezvevamwe zviratidzi okukura ari indasitiri;
• pamusoro micro zvarakanyorerwa chakakura pachisara kugadzirwa mamiriro;
• makro, inobva kudzidza upfumi.

Panewo yoga kupatsanura management yokutevedzera nokuda macroeconomic mhuka. Ivo akakamurwa kuroorwa kaviri, multi-zvekutepfenyura zvokusarudza.

Zvichienderana chinangwa rakasikwa uye kushandisa kusiyanisa pfungwa dzinotevera:

• deterministic kwokuva nemigumisiro zvakajeka zvinonzwisisika;
• Stochastic, izvo zvinoratidza probabilistic zvabuda.

Munyika yanhasi upfumi akapora pachiyero yokutevedzera, iro Vanoratidza nezvaidiwa vafanane of Resource nechigadziko uye dzavo mafomu. Used kurekodha wechesi fomu dzakaenzana matrices.

Pane econometric mhando iyo kupima nzira kwemasvomhu nhamba dzinoshandiswa. On mhando yakadaro kutaura kukura chikuru zviratidzi ari zvoupfumi akasikwa ari kuitika refu (muitiro). Zvinodiwa ari kuongorora uye Kufembera vamwe ezvinhu Statistical mashoko chaiwo zvoupfumi.

Optimization zvokushambadzira kuti zvinoita kubva siyana kungaitwa (zvichibvira) kusarudza kusarudza zvakanaka sarudzo kugadzirwa, kuparadzwa, kana upfumi yavaive. Kushandiswa kupfuma mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro kwaizova inonyatsobudirira zvinoreva kuti kuwana chinangwa ichi.

Simulation zvokushambadzira vanotarisirwa kubatanidzwa racho, kwete chete nyanzvi, asiwo kushandiswa software, kombiyuta. Created somugumisiro nyanzvi Database rinotarisirwa kugadzirisa kuburikidza simulating basa munhu mumwe kana kupfuura mabasa.

Network zvokushambadzira muri kwema akaoma uye zviitiko dyidzana munguva. Kakawanda, muenzaniso uyu rakagadzirirwa basa inotevera kuti, kuti vabudirire shoma nguva chirongwa ichi.

Zvichienderana rudzi kwemasvomhu zvishandiso zvoga muenzaniso:

• chizvaro;
• kuwirirana uye regression;
• network;
• Inventory utariri;
• queuing.

Zvokukura zveupfumi uye akarongeka Modelling

Izvi zviri kuitirwa, zviri pasi zvimwe musoro kuita chirongwa. Pakati chikuru nzendo pakusika akadaro muenzaniso kusunungurwa:

• Pfungwa zvinetso zvemari uye nomufambiro waro Qualitative ongororo;
• Kugadzirwa kwemasvomhu yokutevedzera;
• gadziriro yacho kutanga mashoko;
• kusanganiswa mhinduro;
• Kuongorora zvabuda vavo kushandiswa.

Kana kuisa dambudziko kwoupfumi, zvakakodzera nekutaura dambudziko, tichicherechedza zvinokosha zvinhu uye parameters ari modeled chinhu, kuongorora ukama nomunhu zvinhu kutsanangura kukura uye unhu chinhu.

Kukura munhu akarongeka muenzaniso inoratidza ukama pakati equations, Misiyano, mabasa. Chokutanga, ona mhando womuenzaniso, ongorora mukana kwokushandisa kuti basa chairo, akaumba chairo pasi parameters uye variables. Pamunenge muchikurukura zvinhu zvakaoma kuvaka raznoaspektnye womuenzaniso, inozivikanwa kuti mumwe nomumwe chinhu divi.

Uyezve, zvaida kwemasvomhu computations anoteererwa, izvi zvinoguma vakaongorora.

mhedziso

Pari, hapana yoga pfungwa womuenzaniso. Kupatsanura pakati yokutevedzera pane zvinodiwa, asi haina kutapudza kuenderana yavo.