Chii chichaitika kweeuro? The kushurudzira kweeuro

Vanhu vakawanda havana kurega kunetseka chii chichaitika euro ramangwana. Kusagadzikana ezvinhu munyika zvoupfumi kunoita vanhu kutsvaka nzira kuchengetedza mari dzavo, uye kutendeuka kupinda dzimwe mari anoonekwa somunhu mumwe inobvira nzira. We ratidza chokwadi chokuti nyanzvi dziri hapana kukurumidza kuti zvichaitika ikozvino, sezvo vakawanda vavo okupedzisira mwedzi mitanhatu vakanga zvakaipa.

Kusimbisa of dhora pamusoro kweeuro

Muna March 2015, vaongorori vakawanda vanoti nokusimbaradza mari pamusoro kweeuro. Paiva nezvakafanotaurwa kuti 2017 US mari akafanana zvizere chete European chete. Pasinei pullback, izvo zvinogona kuonekwa yose April, zvinhu haisati yadzika. Kutaura kuti akaipa rinomutsa kweeuro, pakupedzisira achinja, zvinondiremera mangwanani.

Kuvamba May kwakaratidzwa nokuda European mari iri vanotengesa pa 1,1. masangano World akadai Goldman Sachs, Barclays uye BNP Paribas, akataura kuti "European" kuchasvika ichi mutengo Tag ndiyo chete mugumo 2015. More netariro kushurudzira yakapiwa vamiririri Wells Fargo, rinonyanya pachiyero 1.22. Unogona kutaura hunyambiri zvingaguma zvaitika. zviviri vaiona: donhwe kusvikira pachiyero 2-hletnego zvishoma uye kumuka kuti kukosha 1.22.

European upfumi

In yokutanga yezana 2015, nyanzvi kutarisira GDP ikure 1-2%. For Europe, nhamba iyi inogona kunzi kupfuura zvakanaka. Kuti zvirire yakanaka Euro ramangwana zvinotarisirwa macroeconomic zviratidzo. Izvi urovha zvazvingava mukati 9,5%, izvo ichangopfuura akanga rakava chete kaviri digits uye mitengo pachiyero 1%.

Kuwa kweeuro kuzorwa dhora nenyanzvi chokuita zvakawanda kushingaira kusimudzira upfumi America kwemakore maviri apfuura. Pasinei anokarirwa kukura kweeuro iri akatevera, mwero iri aparidze zvinhu zvizhinji nhasi. Zvinogona kunzi kuderedza bhuku maindasitiri kugadzirwa muGermany uye mune dzimwe nyika zvikuru dzakawanda. Dambudziko kwakavanzarikwa gogonera kukura EU nhengo inoti. Northern nharaunda nhasi chete vakadzorerwa pashure yakareba kurega kunotanga.

Kuwa kweeuro somugumisiro unongotaura Mario Dragi

Mario Draghi ari mashoko ake muchirimo wokupedzisira rave akati anoda kutora matanho ose kuderedza chikwereti paruzhinji. Izvi hazvigoni asi kukanganisa euro. Agency vamiririri Morgan Stanley vanoti akaipa kuitika kuchaita aitsigira mumwe uye hama kubudirana pachena kuti European zvokutengeserana rokufambira, uyewo kuvapo deflationary zvisingatauriki. It akanyora water drainage kuti Portfolio-mhando Investments, umo kuridza basa kweeuro mari mari.

EU ukama Russia

Zvinokosha kucherechedza kuti EU ine vamwe kuvimba gasi yabva Russia, uyewo youhu nhumbi munharaunda yacho Russian Federation. Mavhoriyamu uye gasi kupinzwa uye kuderedzwa maererano zvirango, izvo kumanikidza inokanganisa EU nhengo inoti nhasi. Pasinei ichi kuitika, euro, maererano Zvaifungidzirwa kuti vaongorori venyika kwenguva refu havazochemberi. Vanoita havachaoni tariro kusimbisa European mari. Sezvo nyanzvi dzinoti, "dhora nguva iri chipatapata." Chinhu bedzi chinogara tariro - ichi ichikutadzisa zvakaitwa nehurumende American, iyo kuchengeta mwero National mari pane pamwero.

Uchifunga mubvunzo chii chichaitika kune euro ramangwana, nyanzvi dzakawanda vari kuedza kumanikidza ezvinhu pamwe Greece muitiro Chokwadi. Vakaongorora nyika sangano Stratfor kufunga maviri chete nzira yokuti zvimwe zviitiko:

• Greece aigona siya euro mapazi uye Germany achasuma reGermany chiratidzo. Ichi chimwe chezvinhu kunaka Zvaifungidzirwa kuti EU, uchatumirwa peya "EUR / USD" kune kure kuchamhembe kushambira. Zvadaro pane mukana mumwe pokuwa European mari yakakwana.
• The nzira yechipiri - kuenderera Kudyidzana pamwe Greece, uye Germany. Nemari rupiwe kuti States, hazvirevi yacho yose upfumi EU, asi chete kunetesa Kukurumidza kukura usingavaki kuva chiitiko nemafashamo.

"Mumwe Dhora - mumwe Euro" somumwe dzimwe apa

Uchifunga mubvunzo chii chichaitika pamwe euro mashomanana akatevera, vaongorori vane Goldman vakataura kuti Gengi pachiyero US $ 0,9 = 1 Euro ne 2017. Nyanzvi handiregi kutaura ngozi deflation uye anenge zero, uye mune dzimwe nzvimbo uye akaipa ikure upfumi. Kubva 2015 reEuropean National mari akawira 2.6% pamusoro mari 9 kunyika. To parity pamwe dhora anoramba pfupi, chete anenge 15%.

Zvinokosha kutaura kuti kweeuro nechekare pasi nomusi iwoyo chechetere sezvo US mari muna 2012. Mukupera 2014, euro chakarasikirwa anenge 12% ukoshi hwayo. Maererano Chris Iggo, musoro yakamisirwa mari kambani AXA Investment Management, parity zvinogona kuwanika, kana mari mutemo pamusoro Fed uye ECB kuramba kuchinja. We anotaura kuti kwematsutso 2014 ari ECB kutura mwero iri deposits kubudikidza 0.2%. Zvisaririra Posts Draghi kutenga European changamire zvisungo kubata chinotevera pavaipfuura mutemo pakati quantitative easing kuoneka nhasi ari EUR / USD inodonha format.

kwenguva pfupi kudzorerwa

Yanhasi pullback Euro kuchamhembe - iri zvakananga mugumisiro zviito rakatorwa ECB pakupera 2014. Tiri kutaura achidzikisa chimbadzo kubva 0,15% kusvika 0,05% uye vasanyanye mubereko prices pamusoro deposits, yambotaurwa nezvayo. Izvi kare pasi manhamba nokuti kweeuro mapazi kwakamutsa mabhanga nokushingaira anokweretesa chaiye, pane zvemari zvekutepfenyura. Mumwedzi mitanhatu yakatevera, pashure kuitwa zvikuru matanho ari ECB, European zvoupfumi vakatanga kuwanazve zvishoma nezvishoma. Yeuka kuti rutapudzo hapana wafungidzira prices. Mamiriro ezvinhu akadaro sokuti zvichibvira nezvoupfumi matanhatu chete vakabvunzurudzwa mashanu nemanomwe.

Euro uye Russian National mari

Pasinei nokuti kweeuro kuzorwa dhora maonero inoramba kunaka, nhamba yacho Ruble / kweeuro achava chokwadi. The European mari pamusoro Ruble iri pfupi acharamba achiwedzera. The kwakaderera youpfumi muEurope tikafunga Russia iri yakanaka chaizvo chinzvimbo. Mamiriro kunokonzerwa nezviitiko kuitika munyika pamusika mafuta. In kufanana kuwa muna mitengo mafuta vachamuka uye euro. Pasinei kuitika kuwedzera mitengo mafuta, nyanzvi dzichiri vakamirira anoburukira mitengo kuti mafuta kusvikira January yakaderera, saka unogona kuvimba kusvetuka kweeuro kukura Russia rechipiri. Usakanganwa kuti for ari for, uye rinofanira kumusoro kuti Ruble vachatanga kusimbisa nzvimbo.

Chii chichava mutengo euro, maererano vaongorori zvenyika yepamwoyo?

Nyanzvi maonero akasiyana panyaya euro, uye vanoonekwa kwavo netariro. Deutsche Bank anotenda kuwira pasi parity uye kumisa kosi pa $ 0.95 paminiti Euro pakazopera 2017. Forecast George Saravelos munyori zvinobva chokwadi kuti muna 2000 euro / dhora vaitengerana pa 0,8300. Nokuda chinozunguzirwa nemamiriro nokufamba pane zvikamu manomwe kusvika makore mapfumbamwe, Deutsche Bank nyanzvi havaoni chinhu mumamiriro ezvinhu akaoma.

British mubhengi HSBC anopa siyanei maonero kweeuro. sangano zvemari, nyanzvi vane chivimbo kuti pakazopera 2015, euro pamusoro dhora achaita kuchinjanisa pa 1.19. Barclays Vamiririri nyasha pachiyero 1,1, izvo zvinogona kuonekwa nhasi, asi Morgan Stanley nyanzvi tichida vazvionere 1.14.

Panguva iyoyo, zvakaoma kutaura, sei kuzvibata mune ramangwana Euro. Mutengo nhasi haisi pazvakagadzikana, chokwadi, sezvo iye EU upfumi pashure dambudziko harisi chete kuguma 2014, asi 2008-2009. Complex ndeechokwadi mamiriro ezvinhu asingaiti kupindira tenda vaongorori vakawanda vaizotibata chaizvo Remangwana European mari dzaishandiswa. Zvazvinosarira kuonekwa chii chichaitika kuna Euro mberi.